福建省高等教育水平的影响因素——基于BMA方法的实证研究

The factors influencing higher education of Fujian Province ——An empirical study based on bayesian model averaging(BMA)

党的十八大提出推动高等教育内涵式发展,就是要不断提高高等教育的效率。基于投入产出的视角,采用DEA分解测度福建省高等教育水平。为最大限度避免人为事先设定模型及变量导致的系统性偏差,引入模型及变量的不确定性,采用贝叶斯模型平均(BMA)方法对所有可能影响福建省高等教育水平的因素按照其重要性进行分类和排序。结果发现:高等教育投入和高等教育环境对福建省高等教育水平的作用明显但影响方向各异。提升福建省高等教育水平短期应调整资源投入方式,长期应更加注重投入产出的效率。

Promoting connotative development of the higher education means improving efficiency of the higher education. Based on the input-output perspective, this paper firstly established the framework of calculating the efficiency of Fujian＇s higher education according to the Data Envelopment Analysis（DEA） method to measure the level of Fujian＇s higher education. To avoid the routine of setting models and choosing variables artificially before the estimation by most previous studies which may lead to systematic deviations, this paper then introduced the model uncertainty and the use of Bayesian Model Averaging（BMA） to filter the potential influencing factors of Fujian＇s higher education and finally classified and sorted the chosen variables of affecting Fujian＇s higher education in accordance with their importance measured by Posterior Including Probability（PIP） and robustness. The results showed that inputs and environment have significant impacts on Fujian Province＇s higher education but the positive and negative effects co-existed. Therefore, Fujian Province should regulate the way of resource inputs into higher education in the short term; but in the long run, Fujian Province must strive to enhance the input-output efficiency.