广东省农业转移人口市民化成本——收益预测及分担机制研究

The costs and Benefits of Citizenization of Guangdong Rural-to-urban Migrants and Its Sharing Mechanism

本文利用第六次广东省人口普查数据和相关统计数据,分析了广东省农业转移人口的现状及空间分布。根据马斯洛的需求层次理论和人力资本的成本-收益理论,建立了农业转移人口市民化的成本-收益计算模型,总成本包括城市基础设施成本、城市生活成本、住房成本、社会保障成本、成人教育培训成本、义务教育成本和机会成本;总收益包括农业转移人口的收入、对政府财政收入的贡献以及对企业利润的贡献。总体上,各市市民化成本呈现出较大的地区差异性,并与当地的经济发展水平呈正相关;市民化收益的地区差异性相比市民化成本较小;全省市民化成本-收益达到平衡所需要的年限为5.5年。最后,文章初步探讨了市民化成本的分担机制,并针对广东省区域经济发展的不平衡性和农业转移人口的异质性,提出了加强市民化的分区分类策略。

Based on the data from 6th national population census and the relevant surveys of Guangdong province, this article analyzes the rural-to-urban migrants and their spatial distribution in Guangdong. The findings show that the pearl river delta area attracted most rural-to-urban migrants both from domestic Guangdong and other provinces. The computational model about the citizenization of rural-to-urban migrants is build in accordance with the cost-benefit theory of human capital and Maslow Model to evaluate the costs and benefits of the migration. the costs include urban infrastructure, urban living,housing, social security,adult education and training,compulsory education and opportunity cost.The average citizenization cost varies among different areas and shows a positive correlation with the social-economic development of the area while the benefits of citizenization shows less disparity among the areas. It takes about 5.5 years to balance the costs and benefits.However the citizenization costs sharing system is an important consideration in policy-making and the strategy of citienization should be made in terms of the differences of economy development and the migrants' heterogeneity in different areas in Guangdong.