新疆对周边国家农产品出口贸易潜力及其影响因素研究——基于随机前沿引力模型的实证分析

The Potential and Its Determinants of Agriculture Export in Sinkiang, China in the Background of the Economic Belt of the Silk Road——An Empirical Analysis Based on Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model

中国将新疆定位为丝绸之路经济带核心区,在共建丝绸之路经济带进程中,为新疆对周边国家出口贸易发展带来新机遇。在分析中国新疆对周边国家农产品出口贸易发展趋势与特征的基础上,运用随机前沿引力模型测度了2007年~2013年新疆对周边国家农产品出口贸易潜力,并建立贸易非效率模型分析了新疆出口贸易的影响因素。研究结果表明：新疆对哈萨克斯坦、塔吉克斯坦、乌兹别克斯坦、吉尔吉斯斯坦、蒙古国农产品出口贸易潜力较大,而对俄罗斯、印度、巴基斯坦农产品出口贸易潜力较小,对阿富汗农产品出口贸易潜力变动较大;周边贸易伙伴国对外开放水平、上合组织促进了新疆农产品出口贸易;关税壁垒、贸易便利化水平及政体民主环境阻碍了新疆农产品出口贸易,最后提出对策建议。

According to the government report, Sinkiang, China becomes the core area of Silk Road Economic Belt, which makes new opportunities for the export trade between Sinkiang and its surrounding countries. In this background, this paper analyses the trend and features of export trade of agricultural products from Sinkiang to surrounding countries. On this basis, using Stochastic frontier gravity model to calculate the factors influencing export trade of Sinkiang. The results show that the potential of agricultural products export trade from Sinkiang to Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia is greater than that of Russia, India,Pakistan, while trade potential between Sinkiang and Afghanistan show the biggest volatility, Openness level and Shanghai Cooperation Organization promotes the trade, while Tariff barriers, trade facilitation and democratic environment of government blocks the trade.Under above analysis, this paper give some suggestions on the export trade of agricultural products in Sinkiang.