基于时间序列的入室阅览人次实证分析与预测——以天津美术学院图书馆为例

Empirical Analysis and Prediction of the Reading Persons/Times in the Reading Room Based on Time Series——Taking the Library of Tianjin Fine Arts Academy as an Example

以天津美术学院图书馆报刊阅览室2007—2013年图书馆信息管理系统内的阅览人次数据为分析对象,运用SPSS统计软件和时间序列的季节变动,分析了报刊阅览室阅览人次的周期性变化规律,在此基础上,通过拟合出的数学模型对2013年的入室阅览人次进行了预测。结果表明,预测结果与实际值基本吻合,可以为图书馆短期管理中决策和预测提供客观现实的参考依据。

Taking the data of reading persons/times of the newspaper and periodical reading room in the period of2007—2013 recorded in library＇s management information system as the analytical objects, and using statistical software SPSS and time series＇ seasonal change, analyzes the periodic variation regularity of the reading persons/times in the newspaper and periodical reading room, and based on this, forecasts the reading persons/times in 2013 in the reading room by using the fitted out mathematical model. The results show that the predicted value fairly coincides with the actual one,which provides some objective and realistic reference bases for decision-making and prediction in library＇s short-term management.