社会保障与就业、医疗卫生支出对居民消费的影响研究——基于状态空间的方法

Social Security Expenditure,Healthcare Expenditure and Residents' Consumption Based on State Space Model

将政府支出引入效用函数,建立动态一般均衡模型,分析当前的居民人均收入、社会保障与就业支出和医疗卫生支出对居民消费的影响。根据中国2007M1—2013M6月度数据,建立时变参数的状态空间模型。发现居民收入对其消费有正向刺激作用,但由于受未来不确定性因素的冲击,该刺激作用并不是非常强烈;社会保障与就业支出和医疗卫生支出的投入规模虽然逐年上升,但其并未对居民消费产生明显的挤入效应。因此,确定合适的社会保障与就业支出和医疗卫生支出的投入规模,完善政策实施方式并加大政策监管力度势在必行。

The paper establishes a DGE model to analyze how residents＇ income,social security expenditure and healthcare expenditure stimulate residents＇ consumption with government spending being leaded in to the utility function. Based on monthly data from 2007 M1 to 2013 M6 of China,the paper establishes a state space model with time- varying parameters and finds that： the current consumption was significantly affected by income growth; the influence is not strong for impact of future uncertainties; although the investment scale of social security expenditure growth and healthcare expenditure keep growing,both the two expenditure had no significant crowding- in effect on residents＇ consumption. So it＇s very important to define appropriate investment scale of social security expenditure growth and healthcare expenditure,improve the way of policy implementation and intensify supervision policy.