摘要
文章利用实物期权理论,量化了R&D项目投资决策中的技术风险、经济风险和突发风险等不确定性,并结合了跳跃-扩散与信息披露过程的影响,通过分析竞争市场中企业自身与竞争者的投资决策,构建了一类竞争市场情景中R&D项目4种投资决策模型来计算投资决策收益。结果表明:通过对投资时机和决策收益的精确评估得到的R&D项目最佳投资决策,对R&D项目的投资决策分析具有重要的参考价值,并保证了企业的竞争优势和收益最大化。
By the utilization of European option, this paper quantifies the technical risk, economic risk and sudden risk in view of the jump-diffusion and information revelation process. By analyzing the in- vestment decisions of enterprises themselves and competitors in the market, four kinds of R&D pro- ject investment decision payoff models in competition are established. The result shows that the optireal investment decision on the R&D project which is based on the accurate valuation of the invest- ment timing and the payoffs has an important reference value and is helpful for enterprises~ keeping competitive advantage and maximizing the benefits.
出处
《合肥工业大学学报(自然科学版)》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2015年第10期1424-1430,共7页
Journal of Hefei University of Technology:Natural Science
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(70871030)
黑龙江省自然科学基金资助项目(G200914)
国防科工局技术基础科研资助项目(JZ20150006)