基于最佳库存资金持有量的国库现金管理研究

The Research for Cash Management of National Treasury Based on the Optimal Inventory Fund Holding

保持国库库存余额稳定,减少库存波动对货币政策的冲击是国库现金管理的一个重要课题。在最佳持有量测算模型中,Miller-Orr模型运用了概率函数思想,具有可实现区间预测、区间确定灵活,能适应财政收支随机波动的优点。本文以2011~2014年新疆省级国库现金流量为样本,借助此模型测算了国库现金最佳持有量及波动区间,并对2015年上半年进行模拟操作。测算和模拟结果表明,在预算收支未知的情况下,最佳持有量及其区间,基本上满足了在确保财政支出足额支付前提下,保持国库余额稳定、收益明显提高的要求,Miller-Orr模型的应用对地方国库现金管理开展具有积极推动作用。

It is an important subject for cash management of national treasury by keeping the stable state of Treasury stock balance and reducing the impact by the fluctuation of inventory on the monetary policy.The idea of probability function was used in the Miller-Orr model of measurement for the best holding amount,and the model has the following advantages：the interval prediction,the flexible interval determine,adapting to the random fluctuations of financial revenue and expenditure.In this paper,we budgeted the best holding amount of treasury cash,the fluctuating interval and simulated operation the first half of 2015,by using the samples of Xinjiang provincial Treasury cash flow from 2011 to 2014.In the case of unknown budgetary revenues and expenditures,the budget and simulation results show that the best holding amount and its interval are basically met the requirements---Keeping a steady state Treasury balance and revenue increased significantly under the premise that the financial expenditure is full specified amount payment.The application of the Miller-Orr model has a positive role for the local state Treasury cash management.