被疏散者行为的模糊建模与仿真研究

Research on fuzzy modeling and simulation of evacuees' behavior

为提高应急疏散效率,根据疏散场景下人员疏散行为的特点,应用模糊推理知识以及Agent技术,并考虑到人员性别、年龄以及受教育程度的差异,利用智能体建模仿真平台Anylogic建立人员疏散模型。最后,通过对北京建筑大学某5层教学楼建立模型并进行模拟仿真,直观展示人员个体的疏散行为。试验结果表明,采用模糊推理决策的人员疏散仿真模型计算结果为整体疏散用时262 s,仅次于完全理想化状态下的整体疏散用时(250 s),接近真实的疏散过程,能有效模拟个体在疏散过程中的行为。

In order to improve the efficiency of evacuation,aiming at characteristics of individual behaviors,a model,that utilized Anylogic named intelligent modeling simulation platform,based on fuzzy reasoning and Agent technology is used to build the evacuee ＇ behavior model,which takes into account of physiologic factors such as individual＇s gender,age and education levels. Finally,evacuation from a building with 5 floors of Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture was simulated,which can intuitive display individual evacuation behavior. The simulation results show that the model with fuzzy reasoning decision-making evacuated 262 s as a whole,after completely idealized state（ 250s）,closely to the real evacuation process,effectively simulate individual behavior in the evacuation process.