高速公路分合流区潜在事故风险研究

Research on potential crash risk in freeway merging and diverging areas

为深入研究高速公路分合流区的安全性,分析其事故风险,针对多车道高速公路出入口处车辆的分、合流行为,将后侵入时间(PET)作为评价指标,分别找出分流区与合流区PET数据的分布规律,进而以50%分位值作为危险PET阈值。在此基础上,建立概率风险和速度风险等2类基于PET的潜在事故风险模型,并结合单因素方差分析法(ANOVA),对分合流区及其主要影响车道的安全性进行评价。结果表明:高速公路分合流区的PET样本均服从伽马分布,危险PET的阈值分别为1.42和2.44 s;分流区与合流区具有相同水平的安全性,驾驶员在分合流区主要影响区域的不同车道上行车承受的事故风险没有显著差别。

For the sake of further studying the safety of freeway merging and diverging areas and analyzing their crash risk,this study aimed to vehicles ＇ merging and diverging manoeuvers in the exit and entrance areas of multilane freeway. PET was chosen as the evaluation indicator and the distribution of PETs was determined,and then,the 50% quantile was selected as the threshold for dangerous PET. On the basis,two potential crash risk models were built for probability risk and speed risk based on PET.Safety evaluation was conducted by combining with one-way ANOVA for merging and diverging areas and main lanes the areas influence. The results show that PETs of merging and diverging areas have a Gamma distribution and thresholds of dangerous PET for them are 2. 44 s and 1. 42 s,respectively,and that safety levels of merging and diverging areas are the same and there is no significant difference between the crash risks to drivers driving in different lanes of merging and diverging areas of influence.