云模型和D-S理论的煤与瓦斯共采综合评价

Coal and gas co-extraction comprehensive evaluation based on cloud model and D-S theory

针对我国尚未形成系统性的煤与瓦斯共采基础理论体系的现状,提出基于云的定性不确定性度量模型和D-S理论的冲突证据合成规则的煤与瓦斯共采综合评价方法。云模型在定性定量转化过程中能够较好地兼顾评价存在的模糊性和随机性,D-S理论在确定指标权重过程中可以有效地消除数据之间的冲突关系,故综合考虑地质条件、经济效益、技术条件和安全管理因素,建立了煤与瓦斯共采评价指标体系,并对沙曲矿煤与瓦斯共采进行综合评价。结果表明,基于云模型和D-S理论的煤与瓦斯综合评价方法可行,且更具科学性和合理性。

This paper is focused on a viable solution to the absence of the systematical basic theory for coal and gas co-extraction. The solution is a new comprehensive evaluation method designed for coal and gas co-extraction for supporting, a method based on the qualitative uncertainly measurement of cloud model and the combination rule of confliction evidences in D-S theory. The method works better on the cloud model capable of a better-balanced evaluation of the fuzziness and randomness occurring in the process of qualitative and quantitative transference, and on D-S theory capable of an effective elimination of the conflict between the data arising out of the identification of indicators comprehensive weight. The method draws on a combined consideration of influencing factors such as geological conditions, economic benefits, co-extraction technology and safety management, works as an evaluation index system tailored for coal and gas co-extraction, and proves viable as in the case of Shaqu coal mine. The results verify that the method is able to operate in a scientific and effective way.