基于故障树分析的跨界污染物流风险研究

Research on Risk of Transboundary Pollution Logistic Based on Fault Rree Analysis

在我国一些地区,处同一流域但分属不同行政区的上下游地区之间普遍存在着跨界污染的矛盾。要想更好的解决矛盾,使同一流域的上游和下游之间达到共赢状态,是当前迫切的任务。文中从各区域之间进行风险确定,运用故障树分析法(FTA)对风险进行定量化,计算出区域污染的风险值,最后给出相应的对策来降低污染的风险,做到定量与定性方法相结合,给区域内政府决策提供了充足的理论依据和方法。

In some areas in China,the same basin belong to different administrative region between the upstream and downstream areas generally exist the contradiction of transboundary pollution. In order to solve the contradiction better,it is an urgent task to achieve win- win situation between the upstream and downstream of the same basin. This paper determines the risk between various regions,using fault tree analysis（ FTA） to determine risk,calculate the risk value of regional pollution. Finally,gives the corresponding countermeasures to reduce the risk of contamination,quantitative and qualitative method,combining to the regional government decision- making provides ample theoretical basis and methods.