基于未确知测度的核能安全风险评价

Nuclear Safety Risk Management Evaluation Based on Fuzzy Mathematics

本文从风险管理的视角分析了中国核能发展的现状,运用风险管理的方法识别出我国在核能的发展过程中存在的各种风险因素。以山东省某核电厂为研究背景,运用未确知测度模型从自然、技术、经济、管理、法律法规、政策等层面评价我国核能的发展过程中存在的各种风险及其危害程度,以期为政府主管部门的决策、危害评估提供理论参考,探寻中国特色的核能安全风险管理新模式。

The current situation of nuclear power development in China from the perspective of safety risk management was analyzed. The quantitative and qualitative, absolute and relative index classification method were used to identify various risk factors in the development of nuclear energy. Taking a nuclear power plant in Shandong Province of China as the research subject,Fuzzy Mathematics Model was applied to evaluate the degree of safety harm risk in developing nuclear power in China in terms of natural resources,technology,economics,management,legislation and policy. The results of this study aim to provide the oretical references for the decision-making and risk-evaluation of the government department, and to explore a new model of nuclear energy development with Chinese characteristics.