农业碳排放与经济增长关系的实证研究——基于环境库兹涅茨曲线的检验

Relationships between agricultural carbon emissions and economic growth: An empirical test by environmental Kuznets curve

以西藏自治区1998—2012年时间序列数据为研究时间段,根据IPCC提出的碳转化系数法测算了西藏农业碳排放量,采用SPSS 11.5统计软件,运用计量经济学统计分析法研究了农业投入、养殖业、种植业单位耕地面积碳排放量与经济增长的互动关系,并检验其是否符合环境库兹涅茨曲线特征。结果表明:单位耕地面积农业投入、养殖业和种植业碳排放量与经济增长水平存在显著的"倒U型"曲线形状,具有"EKC"假设图形的趋势特征,其拐点分别出现在2015,2007和2003年。农业碳排放尤其是农业投入的碳排放强度在一段时间内伴随农业经济发展水平的提高,也将呈现上升趋势。

In the present study,agricultural carbon emission in Tibet during 1998-2012 was estimated by carbon conversion coefficient method,which was put forward by IPCC. The relationship of agricultural input,carbon emission per unit area of breeding and planting industry with economic growth was explored by econometrics analysis via SPSS11. 5,and the compliance of these relationships with environmental Kuznets Curve was verified. It was shown that agricultural input,carbon emission per unit area of breeding and planting industry exhibited a significant inverted＂U＂shape,which possessed the characteristics of EKC hypothesis graphic trend. The turning point emerged in the year of 2015,2007 and 2003. Agricultural carbon emissions,especially the carbon emission intensity of agricultural input would rise over a period with the elevated agricultural economic development level.