Shibor隔夜利率作为中国货币政策中介变量的实证分析

An Empirical Analysis of Overnight Interest Rate of Shibor as Intermediate Variable of Chinese Monetary Policy

货币政策中介指标选择不再以传统M系列值作为唯一或主要选择,而选择短期利率作为中介指标,这在发达国家已经是中央银行理论与实践发展现实。自21世纪初以来,我国中央银行开始培育自己的短期利率体系,上海银行间同业拆借利率(Shibor)中的隔夜利率就是这个短期利率体系的核心部分。那么,Shibor隔夜利率作为货币政策中介指标在理论上是否科学,在实践上是否可行,这是可以通过实证来加以证明的。而且,通过这样一个实证可以确定:中国货币政策在中介指标选择上有必要做出如下变革性调整:建立和培育中国自己的短期利率体系,借以提高货币政策中介指标对市场变化和经济反应时效要求的整体适应水平。

Intermediate target of monetary policy is no longer the traditional M Series selection as the sole or primary choice, and the choice of short- term interest rate as the intermediate target, this is the central bank theory and practice of development a reality in developed countries. Since the beginning of this century, China＇ s central bank began to cultivate their own short- term interest rate system, Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate （Shibor） overnight interest rates in the short- term interest rates is the core part of this system. So, Shibor overnight interest rate as the intermediate tin：get of monetary policy, in theory, is scientific, feasible in practice, it is possible to be proved by empirical research, and, through such a empirical research can be determined： Chinese monetary policy intermediate target selection it is necessary to make the following changes, namely： to establish and nurture China＇s own short - term interest rate system, in order to improve the overall level of monetary policy intermediate target to adapt to market changes and economic response timeliness requirements.