农村土地综合整治社会风险评价——以南京市江宁区为例

Social Risk Assessment of Rural Land Integrated Consolidation——A Case Study at Jiangning District of Nanjiang City

[目的]分析农村土地综合整治社会风险水平,以弥补已有农村土地综合整治社会风险诊断中指标体系及评价方法的不足。[方法]在界定农村土地综合整治社会风险内涵的基础上,从环境、制度、经济和社会4个方面构建了社会风险的评价指标体系,采用主客观赋权法和模糊综合评价模型,对南京市江宁区良田建设工程社会风险进行评价。[结果]江宁区良田建设工程总体社会风险介于第三级"风险中等"和第四级"风险较小"之间,但更接近第三级,说明工程开展的社会风险程度不高,在当地不会造成大的社会不稳定,但对于存在的社会风险仍然需要加以防范。[结论]为了进一步规避农村土地综合整治带来的社会风险,应该从完善整治目标、健全公众参与、强化工程监管和科学评估风险4个方面采取措施,促进农村土地综合整治事业的健康有效开展。

[Objective]To compensate for the defects in the evaluation index system and the used methods in diagnosis on the social risk of the rural land comprehensive consolidation,this paper analyzed the level for the social risk of the rural land comprehensive consolidation.[Methods]After defining the social risk of rural land comprehensive consolidation,the index system of social risk assessment from the perspective of environment,institution,economy and society were established.Then the social risks of the fertile land development project in Jiangning District of Nanjing City were assessed by objective and subjective synthetic method and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model.[Results]The social risk of this project was between the third level（medium risk）and fourth level（small risk）,but it was closer to the third level.This indicated the risk of this project was not high,which would not result in great social instability.However,the existing risks still need to be prevented.[Conclusion]In order to further avoid the social risks caused by rural land comprehensive consolidation,we can take some measures,such as perfecting targets of rural land comprehensive consolidation,improving public participation mechanism,strengthening project supervision,assessing risks scientifically so that to promote the development of rural land comprehensive consolidation healthily and effectively.