地位、政治关注、政府信任与基层民主选举中的投票参与——一项来自CGSS2010的Logistic回归模型研究

Status,Political Attention,Trust in Government and Voting Participation in the Democratic Election at the Grassroots Level——A Regression Model from CGSS(2010)

基于中国综合社会调查(CGSS2010)的数据,利用Logistic回归模型检视了当前中国城乡基层民主选举中的投票参与行为的影响因素。结果表明:城乡差别、年龄、性别、受教育程度、政治身份、政治关注度和政府信任等变量与居民的投票参与行为显著相关。社会经济地位模型并不适用于中国城乡基层民主选举。同时指出从两个方面促进基层民主选举中居民的投票参与:一是依托党员和积极分子进行有效的政治动员,同时提升居民的政治关注度;二是加快基层政府治理体制改革,提升居民对基层政府的政治信任。

Based on the data of CGSS2010,this paper examined factors in voting participation in Chinese democratic election at the grassroots level by applying a logistic regression model.The results showed that the variables such as the differences between urban and rural areas,age,gender,education,political identity,political attention and trust in government maintained a positive correlation with residents＇ voting participation.The Social Economic Status Model did not fit the situation of Chinese grassroots election.To promote the voting participation,this paper proposed that CPC party members and activists be effective in political mobilization and enhance resident＇s attention.The reform of the governance mechanism of grass-roots government must be accelerated to enhance resident＇s political trust in local governments.