霸权稳定、三重螺旋与东亚国际秩序

Stable Hegemony, Triple Spiral Pattern and International Order in East Asia

通过对理论和现实的考察,东亚地区国际秩序的最佳模式仍然是霸权稳定模式。既有的文献仅关注了霸权国在经济和安全领域的能力,忽视了对国家意志的论述,将霸权稳定的分析模式从二元结构推向三重螺旋结构,即霸权稳定模式需要建立经济、安全和意志三方面互为因果的关系。从实践层面看,在霸权国整体实力和国家意志没有下降的情况下,单一型国家单方面供给公共产品,将会导致地区秩序的不稳定。崛起国如果想和平崛起,必须实行经济、安全和意识形态(由崛起国国家意志演化而来的国际制度)的同时供给,实行国际公共产品的三重螺旋,才能实现霸权转移。

By an examination of the theory and reality, it is found that the international order in East Asia is still in the mode of stable hegemony. But the existing literature tends to accept the mode from dualistic structure to triple spiral pattern, i.e. the stable hegemony needs to be built on the reciprocal causation relationship among economy, safety and state will. In reality, the supply of pubic goods by a single country will lead to the unstable regional order as long as the hegemonic powers remain the same overall strength and state will. The developing countries must develop simultaneously in economy, safety and state will, thus forming a triple spiral pattern in the supply of public goods. Only by doing so can the hegemony be changed.