省域面板数据的民间资本支持实体经济分析

An Analysis on Private Capital Supporting Real Economy from the Perspective of Provincial Panel Data

演运用中国2002～2012 年31 个省域面板数据, 尝试估算民间资本对实体经济的支持, 实证分析了多种因素对实体经济的不同影响.研究发现 中、西、东北部实体经济增长格局表现出一定的波动性, 云南、河北、内蒙和辽宁的实体经济有增强趋势, 黑龙江实体经济趋弱.储蓄存款对全国各地区实体经济的贡献率都比较高; 私营企业流动资产、房地产完成投资和农业机械总动力对实体经济的贡献次之; 固定资产投资中自筹和其它、零售业流动资产对实体经济有贡献, 但微不足道; 社会捐赠教育经费对实体经济的作用不明显, 影响西部地区实体经济发展的关键因素尚不明确.文章对实证结论背后的政策含义进行了阐释.

By employing panel data of 31 provinces from 2002 to 2012 in China, the article attempted to calculate to what extent private capital supported the real economy. Meanwhile, it also empirically analyzed different impacts of various factors on real economy. The findings indicate that: certain volatility could be witnessed within the real economy growth patterns of the middle, the western and the eastern of China; the real economy of Yunnan, Hebei, Inner Mongolia and Liaoning show a tendency of strengthening; the real economy of Heilongjiang is weakening. The contribution of savings deposit to the real economy of all different areas in China is comparatively high; the contribution of current assets of private enterprise, real estate investment and agricultural machinery total power to real economy ranks secondly; self-financing funds and other capital in fixed assets investment, current assets of retailing have contribution to the real economy, but the effect is insignificant; education funds from social donation is helpless for the productivity of real economy and the key factor that affect the real economy in western China is still unclear. At last, the article provided the explanation and some suggestions.