美国LNG出口前景及对俄欧地缘政治的影响

The Prospects of US LNG Export and the Impact on Russian-European Geopolitics

美国页岩气革命为LNG(液化天然气)出口开辟了广阔的前景,并产生一系列的影响。在美国国内层面,LNG出口提升美国在国际能源市场的地位,提高经济竞争力,增强美国的信心底气、国际影响力与软实力。在俄欧层面,美国通过推动LNG出口、拉低油气价格,减少欧洲对俄罗斯天然气的依赖,加剧俄欧能源贸易的竞争性与冲突性,鼓励欧洲调整与俄罗斯天然气贸易的规则,改变俄欧天然气贸易格局,降低长期合同的价格,促进俄欧能源战略多元化。在世界格局层面,拉大综合国力的差距,重塑气候环境、国际关系与能源外交秩序,重构世界经济与地缘政治格局。

US shale revolution has opened up broad prospects for LNG export, and produce a range of effects. In the US domestic level, LNG export strengthens US status in the international energy market, improving economic competitiveness and enhance US confidence, international influence and soft power. In the Russian-European level, LNG export reduces Europe＇s dependence on Russian gas, intensifying competition and conflict energy trade between Russia and the EU, encouraging Europe to adjust the rules to provide natural gas trade, changing the pattern of Russian-European gas trade, lowing the price of long-term contracts, promoting energy strategy diversity of Russia and EU. In the world order level, the US LNG export widened gap between the comprehensive national strength, remodeling climate, energy diplomacy and international relations order, reshaping the world economic and geopolitical situation.