基于HST模型的变压器寿命评估和优化检修系统

Development of the transformer life assessment and optimized maintenance system based on HST model

电力变压器目前广泛采用的检修方式是定期检修,正确评估运行中变压器的可靠性水平是状态检修成功与否的关键,基于此,开发基于热点温度(Hot Spot Temperature,HST)的变压器寿命评估和优化检修模型,该模型中,以阿列纽斯的反应速率理论和威布尔分布为理论基础,描述变压器的老化过程,目的是为了求解变压器失效率λ,并通过指数形式的方程组来计算HST,即通过分别求解顶层油温相对于环境温度的温升,绕组HST相对于变压器顶部油温的增量和滞后的环境温度,从而得到绕组的HST(为前述三者之和)。同时基于该模型,开发基于Java语言和My SQL数据库的软件分析系统,该系统优化变压器检修流程,在软件系统中对热点区进行统计分析得到相应的诊断结果,同时提供了丰富的变压器检修分析模块及界面,可有效减少检修次数,提高变压器利用系数,提高设备的可靠性。

Currently,the maintenance mode of power transformers which has been widely used is regular maintenance. It is key to correctly evaluate the reliability level of transformer in operation condition,which is directly related to the success of maintenance,on this basis,the power transformer lifetime evaluation and optimized maintenance model based on HST（ Hot Spot Temperature） is developed in this paper. In this model,the reaction speed theory of Arrhenius and Weibull Distribution as fundamental theories,which is used to describe the aging process of transformer and get the transformer failure rate λ,and then the equations with exponential form to compute HST,namely,calculate the top oil temperature relative to the environment temperature,and the increment of top oil temperature and the hysteretic temperature,thus it can get the HST（ equal to the sum of the aforementioned three variables）. Meanwhile,based on this model,the software analysis system based on Java language and My SQL database is developed,and the transformer maintenance process is optimized in the system,and then the statistical analysis is made to focus on the hot spot area in the designed system. Finally,the diagnosis results are obtained correspondingly. The designed model and system can effectively reduce the maintenance frequency,and improve the utilization coefficient of transformer,and the equipment reliability.