南极中山站短期天气预报制作及典型个例分析

Short-range weather forecast and typical cases study at Zhong Shan station,Antarctic

重点介绍了目前中山站气象预报使用的各种数据资料,包括实况分析和数值预报产品;从天气学方面分析了影响站区天气的不同尺度天气系统和天气形势分析技术;通过分析利用各种预报及实况信息,得出中山站地区短期天气预报的制作流程,归纳了中山站天气预报的方法和步骤;最后以中山站冬季典型的晴天、降雪和雪暴天气过程为例,总结了3种天气过程的预报经验:当中山站附近地区受高压控制时,天气晴好,气温下降;当气旋锋面扫过站区时产生降雪,气旋减弱填塞以后,降雪过程结束;当站区东部存在阻挡气旋东移的高压坝时,气旋会对站区产生持续的影响,带来极低能见度的雪暴天气。本文对南极沿岸科考站天气预报业务具有一定参考价值。

Meteorological support is increasingly important as China’s Antarctic scientific expedition is proceeding. Based on the experience and research of weather forecasting at Zhongshan station for many years,the method of the operational weather forecast at Zhongshan Station is summarized. Firstly, the analysis charts and numerical forecast products are described, and the impact of weather systems with different scales on the station is analyzed; secondly, the short-range weather forecast methods and steps at Zhongshan Station are concluded; finally, the forecasting experience for three typical types of weather process in winter at Zhongshan Station are summed up, including clear sky, snowfall and snow blizzard process. When the Zhongshan Station is not affected by cyclones, it should be clear and the temperature should drop under the high pressure control.Snow appears when the frontal cyclone swept the station area, and ends after the cyclone weakened. Cyclones will have a sustained impact on the station area and produce low visibility weather snow blizzard when there is presence of high dam blocking cyclone eastward. This article is a reference to weather forecasting for expedition along the coast of the Antarctic continent.