房价变动对宏观经济的溢出效应研究

Macroeconomic Spillover Effects of House Price Movement

论文通过构建随机动态一般均衡模型(DSGE)和基于该模型的数值模拟,讨论了房价变动对宏观经济的溢出效应,得出的主要结论有:住房价格适度上涨在短期内会造成宏观经济某种程度的恶化,但在长期会日益表现出财富效应从而促进经济繁荣;从长期看,开征住房房产税可以降低房价变动的溢出效应,从而有效稳定宏观经济,但货币政策对调节房价溢出效应的效果甚微。论文进一步采用中国30个省份1998年—2013年的面板数据和面板向量自回归模型对DSGE模型的结论进行了实证分析,结果表明理论模型的结论具有较好的实证依据。

This paper develops a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to describe the macroeconomic spillovereffects of house price movement.Based on the results of numerical simulations, this paper finds some useful results.In the short-term, shocks from house price could bring negative effects for macro economy but the negativeeffects will translate into positive effects within several years.In the long-term, house property tax reform will reducethe spillover effects of house price and bring automatic stabilizer effects for China＇s macro economy, but themonetary policy could do little to stabilize the macro economy.Based on the panel data from 1998 to 2013 of 30provinces in China and establishing a panel VAR model, this paper also verified the above conclusions.