地方税收收入与经济增长相关性研究——基于安徽省的实证分析

Research on the Relationship of Economic Growth and the Local Tax Revenue——an Empirical Analysis of Anhui Province

税收作为国家重要的财政收入来源,其与经济增长之间的关系一直是经济学理论界的重要研究课题。文章基于安徽省1994年—2013年的税收收入和经济增长数据,通过构建误差修正模型进行定量分析,实证研究了税收收入与经济增长关系,并得出基本结论:税收增长是建立在经济稳定增长基础之上,但不可忽视其他因素作用。短期内税收可能偏离其与经济增长的长期均衡水平,但通过调整能够回到均衡水平,国内生产总值变动对税收变动短期影响不显著。税收收入与经济增长存在长期依存关系,但经济增长并不是税收的唯一解释因素。进而,有针对性地提出税制改革和财税体制改革建议,以期促进税收与经济更协调发展。

The relationship has been an important research topic in economics theory between the economic growth and the tax which is an important source of national revenue.Based on 1994-2013 data of tax revenue and econom-ic growth of the Anhui province, the paper quantitatively analyzes the relationship between the tax revenue and eco-nomic growth by constructing error-correction model and comes to a conclusion that tax growth is based on the stable economic growth, but other factors cannot be ignored.In the short term, tax may deviate from economic growth e-quilibrium level, but can return to equilibrium level by adjusting .In the long term, tax depends on the economic growth which is not the only explanation factor for tax.At last, the article puts forward some suggestion on tax re-form and fiscal system according with the Anhui actual situation in order to promote more coordination between tax and economy development.