资本主义战胜社会主义了吗？--科尔奈自由主义的逆转和东欧转型神话的破灭

Has Capitalism Conquered Socialism?The Reversal of Kornai's Liberalism and Failure of Eastern Transition

匈牙利转型经济学家科尔奈警告西方:东欧自由化有逆转的可能。他重新主张对俄罗斯、中国等国家实行新的遏制政策。这促使我们调查东欧转型的真相。西方1990年后大幅下调前苏联和东欧的经济数据,意在制造休克疗法使东欧转型成功的假象。然而东欧,包括自由化明星匈牙利的民众发现,加入欧盟的结果是东欧多数民众的利益受损,西欧民众也日益反对欧盟东扩带来的财政和移民负担。是西方短期利益主导下的东欧转型和地缘政治,加剧欧盟的经济危机,引发乌克兰的内战和俄罗斯对西方的失望。科尔奈的软约束理论和转型萧条时期的反凯恩斯政策,对东欧自由化引发的经济衰退负有责任。东欧市场自由化和人心的逆转,对中国转型期间的空想资本主义思潮也带来深刻的教训。资本主义是否如西方宣传的那样战胜了社会主义?中国自主开放政策的成功和东欧单方面开放的失败,说明苏联东欧社会主义阵营瓦解的主要原因在政治而非经济。

JanosKornai, the Hungarian economist of transition, warned the West： there＇s possibility of reversal in Eastern European liberalization. He reasserted new policies to contain Russia, China and other countries, which prompted us to investigate the truth of the transition in Eastern Europe. The West has de-rated economic data of Sovi- et Union and Eastern Europe in 1990s, and intended to manufacture the success illusion of transition of Eastern Europe after the shock therapy. But the Eastern European, including the people of Hungary where the liberalization was a big success, found that it is huge damage to the interests of the majority of people in Eastern Europe by joining the EU, and are increasingly opposing the financial and immigration burden brought by the EU＇s eastward expansion. The Eastern European transition and geopolitics guided by Western short-term interests exacerbated the EU＇s economic crisis, triggered the civil war in Ukraine and the disappointment of Russia on Western. The soft constraint theory of Kornai and the anti-Keynesian policy during transitional depression were responsible for the recession triggered by liberalization in Eastern Europe. The liberalization of Eastern European market and reversal of people＇s belief also teach a lesson to Chinese utopian capitalist thoughts during the transition. Whether capitalism will conquer socialism as Western propagandized？ The success of China＇s open-up policy and the failure of Eastern Europe＇s unilateral opening indicate that the main reason for the collapse of the Soviet Union and socialist bloc in Eastern Europe lies in politics rather than economy.