基于CGE碳税政策对北京社会经济系统的影响分析

Estimation of the impact of a carbon tax on the Beijing socio-economic system,based on a computable general equilibrium model

根据研究需要与北京市2010年投入产出表部门划分情况,尽可能地对能源部门进行细分,并编制社会核算矩阵。构建可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型模拟碳税政策对北京市社会经济的影响。实证结果显示:碳税政策具有显著的节能减排效果,对于化石能源密集型产业产出具有明显的抑制作用,但对于清洁能源、服务业等行业产出具有促进作用。因此严格限制煤炭、石油等高碳化石能源的使用、开发高碳能源低碳化利用技术是减排的重要措施。由于碳税会使产品价格上升,从而导致消费需求减少,碳税对国内生产总值和社会福利具有一定的负面影响,虽然影响程度的相对量有限,但影响的绝对效果较大,应该避免较高的碳税税率。

We modeled the effects of a carbon tax levy using Beijing＇ s Inputs and Outputs table for 2010,disaggregating energy sectors as finely as possible to obtain robust simulation results and compiling a social accounting matrix. Then,we applied a computable general equilibrium model to investigate the impacts of a carbon tax on the Beijing economy and carbon emissions. The empirical results indicate that a moderate carbon tax would significantly reduce carbon emissions and be accompanied by a slight decrease in the rate of economic growth. Among fossil fuel initiatives,reduction of coal and petroleum consumption constitutes the greatest contribution to lowering carbon emissions. Levying a carbon tax would negatively influence fossil-energy-intensive industries,especially coal and petroleum,while positively influencing industries less dependent on fossil fuels,such as clean power and service. We conclude that Beijing should reduce consumption of coal and petroleum while striving to promote the use of clean fuel technology,which may be a crucial means to reduce carbon emissions. Levying a carbon tax would increase the price of production and,therefore,reduce final consumption,thereby producing a slight decrease in both GDP and social welfare. Despite the slight negative impacts on economic growth,negative impacts on gross production are expected to be larger. Therefore,a relatively high level of carbon tax is infeasible as policy.