社会网络视角下的技术范式转换预见探讨

Discussion on Technological Paradigm Transformation Foresight Based on the Perspective of Social Network

在当今技术变革加速的时代,一些企业尽管拥有强大的研发实力和主流市场的领导者地位,然而由于对技术发展趋势判断错误或者忽视新技术的市场潜力,一再错失重要发展机遇的情况时有发生。在此背景下,企业如能预见新的技术范式并识别、培育出突破性技术,则能成为新范式的掌舵者、行业的领导者。目前,已有的、基于线性思维的技术预测/预见方法尚难以解决包含高不确定性、复杂性的技术范式转换问题。文章认为,社会网络从一个网络的规模、密度、资源等角度,通过数据挖掘等工具和实证研究方法刻画范式转换的特征和演化路径,从而可能寻找到技术范式转换预见的途径。

In contemporary society which shows accelerated technological change, some enterprises have strong research and development strength, and function as the mainstream market leader, however, due to the false trend judgment to technical development, or ignoring the market potential of new technology, they miss some important progress chances again and again. Under this background, if the enterprise can foresee new technology model, identify and foster breakthrough technology, they can become leader of new model and industry. Nevertheless, the existing technology, based on the linear thinking prediction/foresight method, cannot solve technology paradigm transformation problems that contain high uncertainty and complexity. This thesis argues that, to depict paradigm transformation features and evolution path by means of data discovery and empirical research, it is possible to find the predictable technology paradigm shift way from the size, density, resources of network.