中国制造业发展与碳排放脱钩的空间计量研究--四大经济区分析

Study on Spatial Econometrics of Carbon Emission Decoupling in the Development of Chinese Manufacturing Industry——Analysis of Four Major Economic Zones

基于Tapio模型对2012年我国环渤海经济圈、长江经济带、泛珠三角经济圈、丝绸之路经济带的碳排放脱钩总体状态进行测算,结果显示各经济区碳排放脱钩情况整体趋好,但丝绸之路经济带脱钩状况最差;而且,基于空间面板回归模型的四大核心经济区制造业企业碳排放脱钩的空间效应实证结果表明,除丝绸之路经济带外的其他3个核心经济圈的空间效应均显著,且环渤海经济圈、长江经济带、泛珠三角经济圈的碳排放脱钩的空间依赖性较显著,但在空间异质性方面,环渤海经济圈差异性最大,长江经济带次之,泛珠三角经济圈最小。最后,给出一些政策建议。

Based on the Tapio model, the paper calculated the 2012 overall carbon emissions of four national core economic zones. The results showed that the overall situation of carbon emissions is getting better, but the Silk Road Economic Belt has the worst decoupling effect. Moreover, the empirical results based on the spatial panel model showed that the space effect is very obvious in the three core economic circles, not including Silk Road Economic Belt; the carbon emission decoupling of Bohai, the Yangtze River economic belt, pan PRD economic circle relies much more on space; as to the spatial heterogeneity, Bohai economic circle has the most obvious difference, followed by the Yangtze River Economic Zone, and Pan Pearl River Delta area. Finally, some suggestions are given.