2015年前三季度我国生猪生产形势分析及后期走势判断

Analysis of our national live pig production of first three quarters of 2015 and judgment of later trend

今年养猪业景象真的就像阳春三月一样,从3月18日开始回暖,之后有高点、有震荡,也有回落的阶段,呈现短周期、小波幅动的特点。而且今年的猪价走势已经经历了两次高点、回落、震荡企稳的循环,可见今年养猪业只能算作是震荡的阶梯式上涨。随着仔猪补栏的好转,7月生猪存栏环比涨0.2%,首次实现了生猪存栏的小幅回升,后期随着补栏增多,生猪存栏将缓慢回升,供应将缓慢好转。立秋后,天气转凉,猪肉需求将逐渐增加,加之大中院校陆续开学,集中消费增加,而生猪供应缺口仍存,将对猪价形成利好,后期猪价虽有震荡,但上涨总趋势依旧不会改变。

This year the scene of pig industry is like the spring in March. From 18 th March,the weather got warm,and then there were high spot and fluctuation. And it also had stages of falling down.It presented the characteristics of short cycle and small fluctuation. And this year the pork price had gone through two cycles of high spot,falling down and stabilization. It could be seen that this year pig industry could only step up choppily. Along with the supplement of piglets taking a turn for the better,in July the chain relative ratio of live pigs on hand rose by 0. 2%. It was realized that the amount of live pigs in stock picked up slightly for the first time. Later on,with the increase of supplement,the amount of live pigs in stock would rise again and the supplement would recover slowly. After autumn begins,the weather would turn cold. The demand for pork would increase gradually. In addition,lots of middle schools and colleges would open in succession,the intensive consumption would increase. But the gap of live pig supplement would still exist. It would form the advantage for pork price. Later on the pork price would have fluctuation,but the general tendency of going up would not change.