湖南农业干旱灾害的时空分布、社会经济影响及形成机理探究

On the Distribution,Socio-economic Impact and Formation Mechanism of Agricultural Drought Disaster in Hunan

干旱是影响我国农业生产乃至整个国民经济最为严重的自然灾害,干旱灾害遍及范围广、持续时间长、造成损失大,且近一二十年呈逐渐加剧趋势。干旱也是湖南省最主要的自然灾害,20世纪90年代以来,湖南农业干旱更是频繁发生。在对灾害研究领域中容易混淆的农业干旱与农业干旱灾害等相关概念进行界定和辨析的基础上,运用文献研究法、数理统计法分析了湖南农业干旱灾害的时空分布,阐释了农业干旱灾害对社会经济的影响,并探寻了其内在的和外在的形成机制,旨在从自然和人类自身两方面较为全面地探究干旱灾害根源,以期能为灾害预防和政府决策提供较为科学合理的理论依据。

Agricultural drought is the natural disaster which has great influence on China＇s agricultural production and the whole national economy with its wide range,long duration,great damage and growing trend.Drought has frequently happened in Hunan province since the 1990 s.Based on the definition of agricultural drought and agricultural drought disaster,using literature review and statistics,it analyzed the time and space distribution of agricultural drought disaster in Hunan,expounded the impact of agricultural drought disaster on economy and society,and explored its formation mechanism so as to identify disaster causes from nature and human being,thus providing a scientific and reasonable theoretical basis for disaster prevention and government decision-making.