云南县域经济跨越式发展下的城镇化时空效应分析

The Urbanization Space-Time Effect Analysis under the Span-type Development of County Economy in Yunnan Province

城镇化是县域经济跨越式发展的重要推力，2000年以来云南城镇化率不断提升，但与之相伴随的是人均GDP、人均全社会固定资产投资、人均居民消费等经济指标在全国的位次逐年下滑。鉴于此，本文首先构建城镇化影响县域经济发展的传导路径，以2005～2012年云南省106个县域地区面板数据为例，从总体效应、时间效应和空间效应三个角度检验云南城镇化对县域经济发展的影响。结论显示：总体上城镇化对县域经济的促进作用仅依赖于投资传导，没有开启消费传导通道；从时间上看，2008年实施新型城镇化战略后，城镇化对县域经济的促进效应开始变得明显；从空间上看，仅有滇中地区通过投资传导发挥城镇化的积极作用，而在其他地区无论是通过消费还是投资都没有起到有效的传导作用。最后，根据研究结论提出打通云南新型城镇化对县域经济跨越式发展促进通道的对策建议。

Urbanization is an important motivation on the span - type development of the county economy. The urbanization rate of Yunnan province has been advancing continuously since 2000. However, accompanied with it, some economic indicators, such as GDP per capita, total fixed asset investment per capita and consumption of residents per capita, are slipping downward year by year in the national ranking. In view of this, this paper intends to test the impact of regional urbanization on the county economic development from perspectives of general, time and spatial effect by setting up a transmission route of the county eco- nomic development being influenced by the urbanization according to the panel data of 106 counties in Yunnan province from 2005 to 2012. The result shows that the promotion of urbanization to the county economy only depends on the investment conduc- tion in general while the path of consumption condition fails to be developed. From the point of time scale, the improvement effect of urbanization on the county economy has become obvious since the strategy of new urbanization was carried out in 2008. From the view of space scale, neither investment nor consumption have played their positive role in urbanization except the in- vestment conduction in the middle region of Yunnan province. Finally, based on this result, some suggestions are proposed on how to improve the effect of new urbanization on the spanning development of county economy in Yunnan province.