深圳鹅颈水流域SWMM模型参数敏感性分析及率定研究

Sensitivity analysis and calibration study on the parameters of SWMM for Ejing watershed in Shenzhen

以深圳市鹅颈水流域为研究区域搭建SWMM模型,在3场不同强度降雨条件下模拟该区域的水文水质。同时,采用修正摩尔斯（Morris）筛选法对模型水文水质参数进行敏感性分析,并以此结果对模型参数进行率定。研究结果显示：水力模块中参数敏感性的大小依次为不渗透性（imperv）、宽度（width）和坡度（slpoe）;水质模块中最敏感的参数为冲刷指数（exponent）;经敏感性分析模型率定结果较好,率定误差检验系数ENS为0.634~0.861,R2为0.698~0.96。

A storm water management model（SWMM）was developed on the basis of Ejing watershed.The stormwater quantity and quality of the region were simulated in three different monitoring rainfall events.At the same time,the improved Morris screening method was used to analyze the local sensitivity of water quantity and quality parameters of the SWMM.Then,the parameters of the model were calibrated through sensitivity analysis results.The results showed that the most sensitive of the parameters in the hydraulic module successively were impermeable,width and slope and among them,the most sensitive parameter of water quality module was exponent.The sensitivity analysis showed that the model calibration results was satisfying,which meant that ENS was in the range of 0.634 ~ 0.861 and R2 was in the range of 0.698~0.96.