地区线性矩法在太湖流域暴雨频率分析中的应用

Application of Regional L-moments Analysis Method in Precipitation Frequency Analysis for Taihu Lake Basin

介绍了基于水文气象途径的地区线性矩法的概念,通过基于次序统计量的线性矩进行参数估计与基于水文气象一致区的地区分析法相结合,以太湖流域1d时段的年极值降雨资料为例,进行暴雨频率分析。应用水文气象一致区的判别准则,将太湖流域划分为8个水文气象一致区;综合考虑三种拟合优度检测方法,选择1~8区的最优分布线型分别为：GEV、GLO、GEV、GEV、GNO、GNO、GEV、GNO;根据地区分析法原理,估算各雨量站的暴雨频率设计值。分析表明：太湖流域各重现期下的年极值降雨空间分布形态基本一致,西南山区是太湖流域的暴雨高风险区,应该在地区防洪规划中引起重视。结果表明：地区线性矩法具有很高的学术和实用价值,建议在全国范围内推广,作为防洪规划的顶层设计和基础工作,以满足工程防洪设计、地区防洪规划、山洪预警和城市防涝防洪规划等方面的需求。

This paper introduced the concept of regional L-moments analysis method via hydrometeorological approach, to precipitation frequency analysis, taking annual maximum rainfall data of 1d in the Taihu Lake Basin for an example. The 140 rainfall stations in the basin have been divided into 8 hydrometeorological homogeneous regions through four criteria, and applying three goodness-of-fit measures to the data, the best distribution has been chosen for each homogeneous region as GEV, GLO, GEV,GEV, GNO, GNO, GEV and GNO respectively, and the rainfall quantile estimates have been obtained through regional analysis method. The spatial patterns of rainfall quantiles are nearly the same for different return periods in the basin. The southwestern mountainous area exhibits to be a storm high risk area in the basin with potential threat of flash flood and debris flow disasters.The results show that regional L-moments analysis method is of academic and application values, and worth popularizing in the nationwide.