基于Kalman滤波方法的海上能源运输通道风险预警分析

The Risk Analysis and Early Warning of Marine Energy Transport Channels Based on Kalman Filtering Method

海上能源运输通道安全性引起世界海运界的广泛关注。为降低海上能源运输通道风险,实现事前控制,文章以海上能源运输通道风险为研究对象,把风险分析视为一个动态过程,将卡尔曼滤波理论引入海上运输通道风险预警中,基于卡尔曼滤波递推算法构建预警模型,将马六甲—南海等4条海上运输通道风险预警作为算例,进行预警验证,对真实值与预测值进行比较分析,得出预警效果较好。

The safety of marine energy transport channels was concerned by the world shipping industry widely. The article studyed on the risk of marine energy transport channels using the Kalman filtering method to reduce the risk of marine energy transport channels and control the risk in advance. Based on the Kalman filter recursive algorithm the early warning model was build, and exampled by the channels of Malacca-the South China Sea and other 4 maritime transport channels. By compareing the real value and predictive value, the early warning effect is good.