我国区域能源消耗及可持续发展的研究

On the Sustainable Development and Regional Energy Consumption in China

针对能源总量的控制,使用多元线性回归、灰色预测、面板数据协整检验、多项式拟合等多种方法,分别构建异质性面板数据、OSL回归、灰色预测GM(1,1)等模型。运用MATLAB、EVIEWS等软件,建立评价产业结构能源消耗特征的指标,并依据各省份的产业结构对各省份能源消费特征进行分类,研究能源消耗与经济发展水平的关系,提出下一发展周期我国能源消费总量按省份合理分配的方案及监督和考核目标完成情况的实施方案。

Based on total energy control,using multiple linear regression,grey prediction,cointegration test and panel data methods such as polynomial fitting,construction of heterogeneous panel data respectively,OSL regression and grey prediction GM（1,1） model. Using MATLAB,EVIEWS software,the establishment of evaluation index of energy consumption characteristics of industrial structure,according to the provinces of the industrial structure of energy consumption characteristics,the relationships between energy consumption and economic development level are studied,and the next development cycle of the total energy consumption in China＇s distribution plan and the implementation of the supervision and examination of target completion plan have been proposed.