基于无标度网络的埃博拉病毒传播模型研究

Study on Propagation Model of Ebola Virus Based on BA Scale-free Network

通过复杂网络中的无标度网络研究了埃博拉病毒传播模型。首先,选取Barabasi-Albert网络构建具有低易感的传染病模型(SIRSLS模型),用于分析埃博拉病毒的传播特性。其次,采用计算机模拟的方法,假定一个具有500人、演化500d的系统,据此对SIRSLS模型的有效性进行了验证,揭示出埃博拉病毒在复杂网络上传播的基本规律。最后,根据西非国家几内亚埃博拉病毒感染者的基本数据进行了模拟试验。研究结果表明,埃博拉病毒的传播具有小世界的特性;埃博拉病毒传播率在小规模范围内有所波动,但是最终会下降并趋于一个稳定状态。此外,根据模型预测结果提出了如下建议:通过改进免疫策略阻止传染病传播;加速疫苗与病毒治疗药物的研究;加大疫情防控知识的宣传,由此减少并最终阻断埃博拉病毒的传播。

The Ebola virus propagation model is studied through scale-free network in the complex networks,it is used for predicting spreading characteristics(a case study of Guinea).First,the BA scale-free network in the complex network models is established according to the non-directional and random spread of the Ebola virus.Ebola virus spread model(SIRSLS model)is established based on the traditional compartment model.Second,computer simulation is applied to verify the validity of SIRSLS model in the complex networks.It is assumed that there is an initial population of 500 people and evolution of 500 times,the simulation is carried out with the Ebola virus infection data of Guinea based on the basic spreading principle of Ebola virus in the complex network to validate the model.It is proposed that from computer simulation result,Ebola spreading rate is fluctuated at the small range,but it eventually declines and tends to a stable state.The spread of infectious diseases is prevented by improving immunization strategy;to speed up the research of vaccines and medications,and increase the propaganda of epidemic prevention knowledge.