1957～2014年巨野县气候变化特征分析

Analysis on the Characteristics of Climate Changes in Juye County from 1957 to 2014

本文利用线性分析和Mann-Kendall检验法相结合,对巨野县1957-2014年的年平均气温、降水量和日照时数的变化特点进行分析。结果表明：近58年巨野县平均气温为13.8℃,年均气温以0.13℃/10 a的速率增加,20世纪90年代增暖是一突变现象。年平均降水量为671 mm,呈现出明显的下降趋势,下降速率为17.9 mm/10 a,且年际变化大,相邻年份中,2002年和2003年差别最大,差值为762.5 mm,从1971年开始降水量减少,并于1980年超过了显著性水平0.05的临界线。年日照时数以88.4 h/a的速率减少,趋势十分明显,其中夏秋季贡献最大,年际间、年代间无明显变化。日照时数的突变点为1982年,1984年以后减少趋势十分明显。

This paper analyzed on the variation characteristics of the annual average temperature, rainfall and sunshine times in Juye County during 1957-2014 using the method of linear analysis and Mann-Kendall examination. The result showed that the average temperature was 13.8 ℃ and the annual average temperature increased by the rate of 0.13 ℃/10 a in recent 58 years in Juye. Warming was a mutation phenomenon in the 1990 s, specific starting in 1990. The annual average rainfall was671 mm to show a clear downward trend at 17.9 mm/10 a and the interannual change was large. The largest difference was762.5 mm between 2002 and 2003. The reducing precipitation mutation began in 1971 and surpassed the significant level of0.05 in 1980. Annual sunshine hours decreased at rate 88.4 h/a and the trend was very obvious and the largest contribution to them was in summer and autumn. The abrupt change point of the sunshine time was in 1982 and the reducing trend was obvious after 1984.