基于事件数据分析法的中缅地缘关系演变

The Evolution of China-Myanmar Geo-Relations Based on Event Data Analysis

缅甸是中国西南邻邦,地处亚洲的"十字路口",是中国从陆上连接印度洋的重要战略通道。中缅关系发展对于保障中国能源安全、促进中国西南大开发、冲破美国的亚太包围圈及实施新的周边地缘战略具有重要的现实意义。本文结合地理学、国际关系学和地缘政治学等多学科研究视角,采用事件数据分析法,探讨21世纪以来中缅地缘关系的演变过程及演变机理。结果表明:12000年以来中缅关系发展大体划分为以下四个阶段:平稳发展、快速发展、全面发展和波动调整。2中缅地缘关系发展每隔五六年出现一次峰值。中缅关系的波峰往往与美缅关系的波谷相继出现,两者呈现一定的负相关关系。3地缘政治、地缘经济和地缘文化是中缅地缘关系演变的驱动力和内在机理。

Myanmar is adjacent to China in geography. It locates in the ＂Crossroads of Asia＂ and has an important geopolitical position through which China accesses to the Indian Ocean. The relations between China and Myanmar play a vital role in safeguarding Chinese energy security, promoting the development of Southwest China, breaking the Asia Pacific Ring of encirclement made by the USA, and implementing new geopolitical strategies. Thus, adopting disciplinary perspectives of geography, international relations and political science, this paper studies the evolution of geopolitical relations between China and Myanmar based on event data analysis since twenty-first century, and further explores evolution mechanism. Three main results are concluded as follows： （1） Since 2000, the bilateral relations between China and Myanmar could be divided into the following four stages： Steady development, Rapid development, Comprehensive development and adjustment period. （2） There are the peaks of bilateral relations every five or six years. As a whole, the peaks of China- Myanmar relation and the troughs of America- Myanmar relation always appear in succession, which shows some negative correlation. （3） Geopolitics, geo-economy and geo-culture are the evolution mechanism of China-Myanmar geo-relations.