出口行为、边际成本与销售波动——基于中国工业企业数据的研究

Do Firms' Exports Matter for Sales Volatility in China? Evidence from Firm-level Data

降低经济波动是后危机时代提升中国经济增长质量、优化开放模式的重要命题之一。本文基于边际成本递增假设从经验上考察了中国工业企业在国内外市场上销售联动间的关系。研究发现:(1)产能约束下的边际成本递增使得中国出口企业的内外市场销售存在着此消彼长的替代关系。(2)随出口份额的提高,企业出口市场的波动性减弱而国内市场的波动性增强,企业的整体销售波动性呈现先下降后上升的"U型"特征。(3)存货积累低以及加工贸易企业的内外市场联动性更为明显。

It is important for China to optimize the model of openness after economics crisis. We assume that finns facing increasing marginal cost have the substitution effect between different markets. Using the Industrial Enterprise Statistics Database from 1998 - 2007, we decompose the sales volatility in different markets and find the following regularities. Firstly, foreign and domestic markets are negatively related due to the increasing marginal cost. Secondly, the volatility of export sales increase with export share, while the volatility of domestic sales decrease with export share. The total volatility fails at first and then rises as export share increases. Third, firms engaged in processing trade or with higher inventory accumulation have a stronger substitution effect be- tween different markets.