甘肃省乡镇精细化客观要素预报方法研究

Study of Refined Objective Meteorological Element Forecast Method in Villages and Towns in Gansu

利用中国气象局数值预报中心下发的T639全球谱模式数值预报产品与甘肃省676个乡镇点的降水、温度历史实况资料,通过建立各乡镇点降水、温度的多元线性逐步回归方程,对降水和温度进行模式释用输出,分别得到甘肃省676个乡镇点0~72 h,时间间隔6 h的逐日降水客观预报和时间间隔3 h的逐日温度客观预报。并对2013年7月的降水、温度预报进行检验分析,发现：基于MOS T639的精细化乡镇降水预报在河西地区的预报效果最好,中部地区及河东部分地方预报效果相对较好,在高原边坡地带的临夏、甘南、陇南以南、庆阳以东及高原东北侧的预报效果相对较低;精细化乡镇温度预报效果整体偏低,只有个别预报结果在河东及中部地区的部分地方预报效果相对较好。

Based on the T639 global spectral model numerical forecast products issued by the China Meteorological Administration and the history data of precipitation and temperature offered by 676 meteorological stations in villages and towns of Gansu Province,the multiple linear stepwise regression equations of precipitation and temperature of 676 stations in villages and towns were established firstly,then interpretation was made about precipitation and temperature output from the model,thus the forecast results of 0- 72 hours were obtained,including daily precipitation forecast with time interval of 6 hours and daily temperature forecast with time interval of 3hours,respectively. Finally,the check analysis about the forecast of precipitation and temperature in July 2013 was made,and results show that the forecast effect of precipitation based on MOS T639 was best in Hexi Corridor,and better in the middle and some parts of eastern Gansu,and that was bad in Linxia,Gannan,southern Longnan,eastern Qingyang and northeastern side of the Plateau. While that for temperature,the forecast effect was bad in the whole,and it was relatively better only in some parts of the middle and the eastern Gansu for a very small number of forecast results.