高硫炼油装置硫化氢泄漏场景集定量分析

Quantitative analysis on scenario set of hydrogen sulfide leakage for high- sulfur oil refinery installations

随机规划方法已成为解决不确定条件下高硫炼油装置气体检测报警仪布置优化问题的重要途径,而构建接近真实情况的泄漏场景集则是实现随机规划的基础。目前,有毒气体泄漏场景集构建方面的研究鲜有报道,且传统以典型泄漏场景为代表的做法未能体现真实风险。为此给出一种融合泄漏概率和风场联合分布概率的定量构建硫化氢泄漏场景集的方法,使场景集包括重要泄漏场景并运用DNV的LEAK软件和历史气象数据定量预测场景的实现概率,为实现后续的气体泄漏检测报警仪布置随机规划提供技术支持。并以某柴油加氢装置为例,定量构建其硫化氢泄漏场景集,为后续的气体检测报警仪布置优化及其它基于定量风险分析的控制决策提供支持。

The stochastic programming has been used as an important approach on layout optimization of gas detector for high- sulfur oil refinery installations under uncertainty conditions,and the leakage scenario set,which is close to actual condition,is the important foundation to realize stochastic programming. However,there have been few reports on the construction of scenario set of toxic gas leakage. In addition,with a small number of typical leakage scenes as the representation,the traditional method can not reflect the actual risk. Thus an approach to quantitatively construct the scenario set of hydrogen sulfide leakage was presented,which combined leakage probability and the joint distribution probability of wind field. The important leakage scenarios were incorporated in the scenario set,and the realization probability of each scenario was quantitatively predicted by using LEAK software of DNV and the historical meteorological data,so as to provide technical support for the future realization of stochastic programming on layout of gas detector. Taking a diesel hydrogenation unit as example,the scenario set of hydrogen sulfide leakage was quantitatively constructed,which can provide support for layout optimization of gas detector and other control decisions based on quantitative risk analysis.