道路交通网络级联失效影响源辨识

Identifying Influence Sources of Cascading Failure for Road Traffic Network

为了给道路交通网络级联失效行为的管理与控制提供参考,根据道路交通复杂网络特性,进行级联失效影响源重要度的辨识和排序方法研究。采用改进的负荷-容量模型刻画道路交通网络的级联失效行为,其中级联失效影响程度用失效路段比例描述;基于比较分析法设计识别算法,依据失效后果的变化程度确定影响源重要性;基于正交试验法建立排序流程,应用极差值进行影响源排序。试验结果表明:备用能力系数、出行网络拓扑、出行总需求、路径选择行为、攻击方式均是级联失效的重要影响源;影响源重要度从大到小依次为攻击方式、出行需求总量、备用能力系数、网络拓扑结构、路径选择行为。

To provide reference for management and control of cascading failure behavior for road traffic network,the method to identify and sort influence sources of cascading failure was analyzed according to road traffic complex network characteristics.The load-capacity model was improved to describe cascading failure behavior of road traffic network,where the ratio of the failure sections was used to depict the degree of damage.Based on the method of comparative analysis,the recognition algorithm was devised to distinguish the importance of influence source in accordance with the change degree of the failure consequence.Based on orthogonal experiment method,the procedure was built to sort the importance of influence sources in the light of range value.The results show that reserve capacity coefficient,travel network topology,travel total demands,route choice behavior,and attack mode are all important influence sources of cascading failure,and the importance sequence from big to small is attack mode,travel total demands,reserve capacity coefficient,travel network topology,and route choice behavior.