博弈方的行动集合变化的博弈运动研究——以稀土出口贸易为例

Research on the Gaming of the Players' Action Sets Changing:A Case Study of the Rare Earth Trade

文章以稀土出口贸易为背景,分析了博弈方的行动集合随时间变化的博弈运动。首先定义了行动集合的三种变化情形:集合变大、集合变小和集合变化不确定。然后针对单个博弈方行动集合的三种变化情形,分别讨论了均衡解的运动轨迹,分析表明:在行动集合变大和变小两种情形下,均衡解的轨迹呈现互逆的运动特性;在行动集合变化不确定的情形下,保守和冒险策略等价,固定策略严格优于保守、冒险策略。在此基础上,将模型推广到博弈双方的行动集合均发生变化的博弈运动模型,分析表明上述结论仍然成立。最后,以中国同马来西亚在2012年6月到2013年3月间的稀土出口贸易为例,验证了本文模型和求解方法的合理性与可行性。

Considering the export of rare earth as background, this paper analyzes the gaming model in which the players＇ action sets are changing over time. First, we define three changing styles for action set： action set heightening, action set shrinking, and action set changing indeterminacy. Then we investigate the track of the equilibrium solution in which only one player＇ s action set will change over time. The results show that the tracks of the equilibrium solution when the action set heightening and shrinking are opposite, and the stationary strategy is strictly superior to conservative strategy and risky strategy which are equivalent in this situation. Moreover, this single action set changing model is applied to both two action sets changing overtime and the results still hold trne for the new model. Finally, the rationality and feasibility of the gaming model and solution are validated by a case study of the rare earth export of China and Malaysia from June 2012 to March 2013.