基于本底趋势线法和TOPSIS的张家界旅游产业成长研究

A Study on the Growth of Zhangjiajie Tourism Industry Based on Natural Trend Curve Theory and TOPSIS Method

文章运用本底趋势线法和加权TOPSIS模型,从旅游自我成长和旅游外源成长两个视角出发构建旅游成长综合指标体系,对2002-2012年张家界旅游产业成长进行定量分析。结果发现:2002-2012年张家界旅游产业成长由直线成长趋势和一个周期波动组成;突发事件对张家界旅游产业的成长带来巨大影响,但突发事件周期一般较短,不会改变旅游产业成长的基本趋势。SARS、禽流感、2008年的重大事件和环境问题对张家界旅游产业成长造成的损失率分别为28.4%、17.6%、9.9%、1.3%;宣传力度的加大和相关政策的出台能够推动旅游产业成长;张家界旅游产业抵御突发事件的能力正逐渐增强,旅游产业的自我成长和外源成长相互作用能够降低突发事件的影响。

Based on the theory of natural trend curve and weighted topsis model ,the article selects 2 large systems such as tourism industry of the self‐grow th and exogenous grow th to construct the index system of Zhangjiajie tourism industry grow th ,quantitative analysis oftourism industry grow th from 2002 to 2012 . Result show s that ：Zhangjiajie tourism industry grow th in the research stage components by a linear grow‐ing trend and a cyclical fluctuations .Unexpected events have a tremendous impact on the growth of the tourism industry in Zhangjiajie ,but emergency period is generally shorter ,does not change the basic trend of the grow th of the tourism industry .SARS ,avian flu ,the 2008 major events and environmental problems caused loss rates were 28 .4% ,17 .6% ,9 .9% ,1 .3% .Increase efforts of publicity and appear relevant poli‐cies can promote the growth of the tourism industry .The ability to resist sudden incident Zhangjiajie tourism industry is gradually increased ,the tourism industry of the self‐grow th and exogenous grow th in‐teraction can drop to the impact of unexpected events .