基于Logistic回归的茶树越冬期冻害气象因素分析

Meteorological Factor Analysis of Freezing Injury to Overwintering Tea Based on Logistic Regression

从山东日照、青岛、临沂三个主茶区45年的气象资料中,选择可能导致茶树越冬期大冻害形成的31个气象因子作为自变量,以越冬期大冻害发生有无作为因变量,进行单因素Logistic回归分析,从中选出9个有统计学意义的气象因子进行多因素Logistic回归分析,建立茶树越冬期大冻害发生的Logistic回归模型,并对模型进行评价。结果显示,1月平均气温、上年7月平均气温、上年11月降水量、上年11月平均气温、2月空气相对湿度五个气象因子决定了茶树越冬期大冻害的发生,其中1月平均气温是主要因子。

Thirty -one meteorological factors were chosed as dependent variable from 45 years of meteor-ological data in 3 major tea producing areas of Qingdao,Rizhao and Linyi in Shandong Provingce.Occurrence or not of the freezing injury during overwintering was chosed as independent variable.The single -factor logis-tic regression analysis was conducted,and 9 meteorological factors with statistical significance were chosed for multivariate logistic regression analysis.Then the logistic model for the heavy freezing injury occurrence of o-verwintering tea trees was established and evaluated.The results showed that the average air temperature in January,average air temperature in July of last year,rainfall in November of last year,average air temperature in November of last year,relative air humidity in February were the main determinants that caused the heavy freezing injury to the overwintering tea tree.