能源消费总量控制政策对产业结构调整的门限效应及现实影响

Threshold Effect and Real Impact of Industrial Restructuring Under Total Energy Consumption Control Policy

本文采用动态面板门限模型分析能源消费对产业结构调整的门限效应,在此基础上以京津冀鲁为例模拟控制煤炭消费总量对产业结构的动态影响。研究发现:在经济发展的不同阶段,能源消费对产业结构调整的影响存在单门限效应,且这种效应会发生由负向到正向的趋向性变化。如果不考虑技术进步和能源消费结构变化的影响,实施能源消费总量控制政策,短期内不利于产业结构高级化;考虑技术冲击和能源消费结构变化,会有利于促进产业结构高级化,但能源消费结构调整会弱化技术进步带来的正向冲击。

There is little empirical research to explore the implications of the total energy consumption control. This paper analyzes the threshold effect of energy consumption on industrial restructuring using the dynamic panel threshold model and simulates the dynamics effect of total coal consumption control on industrial structure within Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei and Shandong. We find that there is single threshold effect in the impact of energy consumption on industrial structure adjustment at different stages of economic development, which changes from negative to positive. If technology and energy consumption structure remain the same, the total energy consumption control policy does not induce industrial structure upgrade. However, in the presence of technology shocks and energy consumption structure changes, this policy contributes to the upgrade of industrial structure despite that energy consumption structure adjustment weakens the positive impact of technological advances.