全球视角下服务业与城市化互动关系研究——基于22个国家1960-2013年面板数据的实证分析

Global Perspective Research on the Interaction Relationship Between Service Industry and Urbanization:Based on Panel-data Empirical Analysis of 22 Countries in 1960- 2013

为了探寻服务业与城市化之间互动关系,为中国产业转型升级和城市化发展提供参考,本文收集整理了22个国家1960-2013年的相关数据,首先进行系统聚类,将样本国家分为三个梯队,中国被归为第三梯队;再针对各个梯队进行描述性统计,发现:第一梯队处于经济高度发达、城市化和服务业发展较高的阶段,第二梯队次之,而第三梯队属于典型的国土和人口大国,其经济发展水平有限,城市化水平和服务业发展水平均较低。随后,本文对各梯队分别建立以城市化和服务业为因变量的面板回归。研究结果表明:城市化和服务业发展从初期到高度发达过程中,其相互促进作用呈现由强到弱的趋势,且城市化对服务业发展的促进作用较之服务业对城市化的促进作用要大;当达到潜在最大城市化率后,其正相关关系会转为负相关。基于研究结果,本文针对中国目前、近期以及将来的服务业和城市化发展路径和方式进行了探讨,指出中国现阶段应以发展新型城市化为突破口,带动服务业发展,从而形成服务业与城市化相互促进的良性循环;当中国的服务业和城市化水平进一步提高时,应将现代服务业作为实现城市产业结构、空间布局升级的重要引擎,提高现代服务业的知识溢出效益和技术溢出效应;当中国服务业与城市化达到高度发达时,应加强中心城市的辐射作用,形成以产业特别是高端制造业和现代服务业为节点的多中心的网路型城市群,对城市空间规划进行优化,实现精明增长。

In order to explore the interactive relationship between service industry and urbanization, and propose suggestions for industrial transformation and upgrading, as well as for the development of urbanization in China, this paper collects relevant data of 22 countries from year 1960 to 2013, and divides all the those countries into three categories by applying the method of system clustering. After analyzing each category with descriptive statistics, we find that the economy, urbanization and services industry of the first category have been highly developed, faster than those of the second category, while the third category is a group of countries with large homeland, population and less development in economy, urbanization, and service industry. Subsequently, two panel regressions have been set up for each category taking urbanization and service industry as dependent variable respectively. The results reveal that： in the process from early to advanced stage, mutual promotion between service industry and urbanization gradually becomes weak; the effect of urbanization on service industry is larger than that of service industry on urbanization; ＇after reaching the potential maximum urbanization rate, the positive correlation will change to negative relation. Based on the research, this paper explores the path and pattern of service industry and urbanization in China for now and near future, and suggests that at present China should take new urbanization into a breakthrough to drive the development of service industry and to form a virtuous cycle between service industry and urbanization; when China＇s service industry and urbanization further develop, modern services industry should have to be considered as an important engine for upgrading the municipal industrial structure and space layout, and countermeasures should be taken to improve the spillover effect of knowledge and technology of modern service industry; when China＇s service industry and urbanization achieve senior level, the radiation effect of central cities should be enhanced to form conurbation with multi-center network featured with high- end manufacturing and modern service industry as node, and optimize the urban space to achieve smart growth.