矿产资源密集型区域可持续发展的协同演化

Influence of the Industry Scale on the Mineral Resource Intensive Area's Sustainable Development

本研究关注矿产资源密集型区域经济系统内产业结构演变问题。在资源储量不断下降、环境压力持续增强的发展阶段,矿产资源密集型区域的产业结构往往显示出资源路径依赖的单一结构,在资源枯竭阶段,这种产业结构会制约区域经济的增长。对于该类型区域而言,实现可持续发展的关键就在于如何实现区域产业结构的优化,最明显的标志则是产业规模的变化。由此,本研究尝试构建矿产资源密集型区域经济系统协同演化模型,以对产业结构变化过程中不同产业企业数量波动的趋势进行解释。首先对矿产资源密集型区域经济系统的性质进行了分析,考虑到在资源枯竭阶段其产业结构会发生较大的变化,整个区域经济系统的演进趋势存在起伏,系统运动轨迹可以用logistic方程描述;其后,导入了Allee效应项来解释区域经济周期波动的现象,并对系统性质进行判定,对系统平衡点的稳定性进行了分析;在此基础上,论文以白银市为案例,对其科技型和资源依赖型企业的规模变化进行了分析,发现其不同类型企业规模的波动趋势符合研究预设的logistic方程的运行轨迹。研究认为,第一,在资源枯竭阶段,科技型企业的数量会增长;第二,在技术入侵的前提下,两类企业的数量会增长;第三,在资源枯竭阶段,科技型企业的存活依赖更大的企业种群密度。

Firstly, the study analyzed the character of the mineral resource intensive regional economic system. Considering that the resources reserves in this typical area is not endless, its economic growth will be affected by the regional resources endowment, the industrial structure has been great changes at the resource depletion stage, the evolution trend of regional economic system there fluctuates, the system trajectory can be described by the logistic equation; Then, the research import the Allee effect to explain the phenomenon of regional economic cycle fluctuation, identify the system properties, and analyze the stability of the system equilibrium point; On this basis, the paper put Baiyin as an example, and analyzed the scale changes of the science and technology and the resources dependent enterprises in this area, we found that the fluctuation trend of different types of enterprise scale according with the preset orbit of the logistic equation. Through the analysis of calculation results, the study suggested that, firstly, the number of science and technology enterprises will grow in the resource depletion stage; Second, the number of these two kinds of enterprise will grow under the premise of invasion of the technology ; Third, the survival of the technology-based enterprise depends on the larger population density in the stage of resource depletion.