考虑经济地理区位的城乡公交需求分析

Urban-Rural Transit Demand Considering Economic Geography Location

为掌握乡镇居民城乡出行时空分布规律,了解城乡公交发展现状及未来需求,分析了乡镇居民的个人属性、城乡间出行活动特征和城乡公交服务水平等指标;结合区域经济地理区位定量分析方法,探索起讫点的经济地理区位对城乡出行需求产生的作用;构建了引入经济地理的城乡公交需求结构方程模型,解析城乡公交选择意向与其他因素的相互影响。研究结果表明:城乡公交服务对象主要是中低收入且无私家车的群体;城乡公交是城乡间的主要出行方式,需求显著高于其他交通工具;某乡镇与周边区域经济区位水平差异越大,越具有城乡公交需求潜力,应酌情增加线网布设;在提高城乡公交服务水平方面,降低票价、合理布设站点是关键方法,可进一步增强城乡公交吸引力。

In order to understand the time-space distribution law of rural residents′ urban-rural traveland know the current situation and future acquirement about urban-rural transit, various indexes wereanalyzed, including personal attribute, activity character between urban-rural areas and the level of ur-ban-rural transit service. Combined with the quantitative analysis method of regional economic geogra-phy location, the effect of economic geography location on the urban-rural travel demand between originand destination was explored. The structural equation model of urban-rural transit demand with econom-ic geography was built to describe the interact of select intention of urban-rural transit with other fac-tors. The results show that the service object of urban-rural transit is mainly low and middle income peo-ple without private car. The leading mean of rural-urban travel is urban-rural transit which has higherdemand than other travel modes. One country with more economic geography location difference to sur-rounding area has more urban-rural transit potential demand and needs to appropriately increase the network deployment. In the aspect of improving the level of transit service, the key method is lower priceand rational station distribution, which can further enhance urban-rural transit attraction.