全球焦煤供求形势概览——焦煤短缺或致钢铁“口粮”大饥荒为期不远

Overview of the Global Coking Coal Supply and Demand Situation

产能过剩,不是资源过剩。人类的急功近利和短视在今天的煤炭生产领域集中爆发,有限的煤炭资源被无节制的开发,导致产能严重过剩、供需关系严重失衡。焦煤是地球上最珍贵稀缺的资源之一,尽管中国是世界上焦煤资源最多的国家,但经过三十年多的超强度开采,优质主焦煤已经面临枯竭,全中国已经很难找到一亿吨以上储量的优质主焦煤田。澳大利亚、美国和加拿大这些主要生产焦煤的国家,未来新增的产能非常有限。优质主焦煤的供求关系将在未来5年左右发生逆变。供求关系只要偏离5%,就会导致价格的飞涨,主焦煤严重短缺的时代为期不远。只有掌握足够的优质稀缺资源,才有明天的话语权乃至生存权。这不仅是企业的战略,更应当是国家的战略。

There is not an excess of the resources but mining capacity. The eager for quick success and instant benefits and short-sightedness of mankind has converged to a disaster in the coal production industry today. The limited coal resources in China are developed and dumped unlimitedly, resulting superfluous excess capacity, and severely unbalanced supply and demand! Coking coal is one of the most scarce and precious resources on earth; ahhough China used to possess the most coking coal in the world, her hard coking coal is drying up after more than thirty years of intensive mining. Throughout China, it is difficult to find a coal field that has a reserve larger than 100 million tonns Major producing countries like Australia, the United States and Canada will have very limited augmentation in capacity in the future. The supply and demand of hard coking coal will turn around in approximately five years. Even for a difference of 5% between the supply and the demand, the price will rocket up. A severe shortage of hard coking coal will not be far down the road. Only if you grasp sufficient excellent scarce resources will you be able to have a voice or the right to survival for tomorrow. This should not only be a strategy for an enterprise but even more so for a country