中国农村低保标准保障力度的变化轨迹和省域聚类分析——基于31个省域的实证分析

The Changes Track and Cluster Analysis on the Security of the Rural Minimum Living Guarantee Standard:An Empirical Analysis Based on 31 Provincial Regions

我国农村低保工作始于上世纪90年代,2007年正式在全国范围内建立农村最低生活保障制度。低保标准的保障力度关乎制度实施的效果、制度目标的实现。农村低保标准的保障力度一般用比率模型来测量。通过对全国31个省域的实证研究发现:各省域农村低保标准占人均消费、人均收入(替代率)、地方财政支出的比重总体逐年上升,但低保标准的保障力度存在较大的区域差异。根据测量维度将31个省域五年来农村低保标准保障力度进行分类,并分析五年来各地农村低保标准保障力度分类的动态变迁规律,明确中央财政转移支付在农村低保工作重要性的同时,各地应根据自身所属类别适时调整并制定与地方经济发展水平相适应的农村低保标准。

In China, rural minimum living guarantee system began in 1990s, and it was established formally across China in 2007. The security of the rural minimum living guarantee standard relates to the implementation of the rural minimum living guarantee system. The security is usually measured with rate model. The study shows：the rural minimum living guarantee standard as a proportion of per capita consumption, per capita income（ rate of substi- tution） and local fiscal expenditure was increasing year by year, but there were large regional differences in the security of rural minimum living guarantee standards. According to the measurement dimension ,we classified 31 provincial regions by their security of the rural minimum living guarantee standards in the past 5 years and in- duced the change law of classification. The paper shows the central finance should play an important role in the rural minimum living guarantee system, and meanwhile, local governments should make suitable standards a- dapt to local economic development in accordance with its own category.